In retrospect, we can say that in his book, Connolly showed incredible clairvoyance when he predicted that the introduction of the monetary union will inevitably lead to a crisis, which in finally came.
A peculiar irony was that at the time the book was published Connolly was a member of staff of the European Commission, where he focused on the monetary policy. His employer did not share his critical opinion on the Euro. In the same year he lost his job, and even before the termination of employment, he was denied access to the buildings of the European Commission.
The Rotten Heart of Europe
In his own words, even at the entrance there was a photograph of him, as if he were a criminal. European Court of Justice later backed the Commission up …. Connolly now works in the private sector, and the public hardly knows about him. The new edition of his book, however, was an opportunity to use the preface to summarize the fundamental causes of the crisis of the Euro area in hindsight.
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The price for not solving the problems is another crisis in the future; a threat to democracy and peace in Europe. Certainly, there is no need to agree with everything Connolly says. However, when thinking about what awaits us in the Euro area in the coming months and years, I listen to his opinion with much more respect than to the opinions of the prophets of unfounded optimism.
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The euro, and more generally, the European Union, has been a bureaucratic racket from the beginning. Brussels protects its own interests first. It does not weigh the success of its ventures by how the masses subject to its mandates fare. The euro had its flaws, but the paper pushers never answer for mistakes.
Like the Federal Reserve or the Gang of Four, they are unaccountable. The latter offers some hope. It is only natural that Italy shoveled out bonds, borrowing and spending, until its debt grew to be the third largest sovereign bond market in the world, without a chance now of repayment at par. A carrot was dangled, but quickly withdrawn.
By the way, the effectiveness or necessity of rules is not discussed nearly as much as whether they are breached. The rules seem to be an end in themselves. The real problem, of divergent national economies operating in a single financial system, while countries spend and tax with very different priorities, has not changed.
Bernard Connolly: The man who predicted the euro crisis - MoneyWeek
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